Friday, 4 June 2010
Wednesday, 2 June 2010
Adoption of the Berlin Protocol!
After long days and nights of fierce negotiation and an incredible build-up of tensions on the last day the Berlin Protocol has been adopted by consensus today at 3.07 pm. Reactions have been very positive and a very harmonious atmosphere reigns among the delegates.
China is very pleased with the outcome and that it has achieved its goals, while emphasizing that it also made substantial concessions given the urgency of the situation.
The US government is "relieved that the international community has managed to put the common interest first".
The success of the negotiations is probably most obviously reflected in the Markus Kuhlmann's (Greenpeace) comments: "I am very happy about reaching an agreement", even though he hastily added: "(...) but it is unacceptable that nuclear energy is still considered an option and we will continue to make our voice heard about this".
Russia was not available for comment.
Major last minute breakhrough!
The US and the EU have been successful in pushing Russia to accept a deal on climate change! However, our rumors have been confirmed and the cost of having Russia on board is the promise to start the "most serious trilateral talks on arms issues since the Cold War", in the words of President Obama.
May we hope that this promise remains empty , and we might have a first indication of whether President Obama does indeed keep his promises very soon (that is if there is an agreement on the trading group proposal)!
BREAKING NEWS!!! Horse-Trading in Berlin!!
It seems that the US has been successful in getting a commitment from Russia! As happy news as this is, we don't know the details about the trade though, but we have rumors that side-payments and other political - and potentially dirty - issues are involved.
Are we trading an inclusive climate deal for a very dirty arms deal??
Rumors of a US-Russia breakthrough!
Our reporters have information about a major breakthrough in the bilateral talks between the US and Russia. Laughter is being overheard - dirty laughter!
Greenpeace intervention!
Greenpeace has entered the half-empty room to loudly voice concern over nuclear energy progress!
Last minute bilateral talks to save the negotiations?
As tensions rise, Russia and the USA have left the plenary for bilateral consultations. Is there still hope?
BREAKING NEWS: Russia threatening a universal accord!
Russia has reiterated its objection to the agreed 2050 mitigation targets and is seriously threatening the adoption of a universal resolution!!
As time is running, delegates are still trying to soften the Russian position, but the outlook is pretty grim!
Delegates Enter the Final Plenary
At 1.45 pm, the final plenary session of the Model UNFCCC negotiations in Berlin came to order. After two days of negotiations the delegates are now discussing the proposed text of the resolution, hoping to reach consensus.
Resistent Objector
Despite the permanent efforts of mostly all of the delegates in the Mitigation group the delegate from Russia is still sticking to a objecting position. Right now secret negotiations taking place with delegates from the US, Germany and UK trying to offer special conditions to Russia with the goal to finally arrange an accord.
Rumors are going around that if the Russian delegate continues to object, Russia will be banned from the negotiations and that there will be hopefully an agreement among the other states.
Will Obama be belly dancing?
An unusual promise by the US president has leaked to the press: should the trading group come up with an agreement he will perform a belly dance!
Is this incentive sufficient for successful negotiations? If so, will the president live up to his promise?
Run-up to the Berlin Protocol
The world holds its breath as negotiators finalize their resolutions.
China/India and the EU/US have made substantial progress in aligning their positions, but the devil is in the details.
South Africa and Russia have more fundamental unmet demands, especially with regard to financial and technological transfers.
Russian outright rejection to any commitment has been softened somewhat over the course of negotiations, but their vote will depend on the details that are being negotiated right now. South Africa has voiced concerns about overly ambitious reduction targets and has also stressed the need for African countries in particular to receive sufficient aid in terms of financial and technological transfers to be able to meet whatever targets will be agreed on.
South Africa is still blocking
According to last year's Algiers Declaration, all of Africa was supposed to be negotiating as a bloc - but the South African delegate does not seem to have the needs of other African nations at heart. In hopes of gaining more and more money and resources for her own country, which is already much better off than any other nation on the continent, she has been blocking progress toward an agreement. Other small African nations would like to see an agreement happen. Is the African coalition falling apart? Or will the South African delegate remember her responsibility
to her less fortunate neighbors, before it's too late?
Chinese press release:
China supports South Africa and Sudan with their will to have a clear trading mechanism to benefit/realize their target. However, were South Africa and Sudan making an agreement impossible, China would cease immediately any kind of cooperation and financial flows into those countries.
Fruitful discussions and fast progress in the adaptation working group
The adaptation working group has agreed upon a 150 bn USD per annum until 2020. The starting year will be 2013. 30 bn USD will be paid in 2013. It has also been decided how the adaptation fund will be financed. The amount to be paid will be determined taking into account GDP per capita and past emissions for developed countries. Developing countries with a per capita GDP above world average will also be among the donors. The amount of money which will flow to the fund between 2020-2050 will be based on the degree of temperature rise and level of climate change.
The most important adaptation technologies which will be financed and supported are water and costal management, agriculture, energy and health. Expert and talent transfer, bilateral and multilateral cooperation as well as empowering of local capacities will be important areas which will get funding from this fund.
Russian delegate prefers bungee jumping to negotiations
Some new surprising photo material has showed up about the Russian delegate. Apparently our distinguished delegate would rather spend her time bungee jumping than seriously preparing for the climate negotiations. Will her government be pleased to find out that so many international relationships are being destroyed?
Greenpeace strikes again
Increasingly impatient about the negotiations, Greenpeace France has staged another assault on what it regards as "empty negotiations".
Maldives urge mitigation committee to take stronger action
The Maldives president has addressed the mitigation committee today, arguing for stronger action on emission targets. To this end, he has used a simulation tool that predicted the change in global temperatures if targets that were currently negotiated were to be adopted, showing that the rise in temperatures would - at current discussed emission levels - not be stabilized at 2 degrees.
Calculations are going on in the Mitigation group
After the surprising and historic announcement by India and China, who proposed a long-term convergence of per-capita CO2-equivalent emissions called “Proposition Fairness” [link], the mitigation group had a great deal to discuss. The US immediately expressed its appreciation and support, but also cited concerns about population growth – in particular that countries with fast-growing populations would undermine the need for aggregate emissions reductions. The European Union also supported the new proposals at a broad level, and asked for more time to consider the possibility of offering stronger targets. Following bi-lateral discussions, the group of nations appeared to be moving toward compromise, with the US offering to consider some limited population growth as acceptable, and asking India to consider aggregate emissions caps over the long run. The Indian delegate was receptive to this idea, but asked for additional financial support. The US delegate offered to look for funding solutions.
The delegate from Brazil, who is also the committee Chair, offered support in principle but asked for more time to calculate a specific proposal. Other delegates echoed the need for more time, resulting in a session break during which some delegates met privately while others listened to special presentation by the Maldives on the scientific predictions of temperature and sea-level rise under the new proposal.
Obama calls for a combined approach to reduce emissions
The US president has expressed his appreciation for the Chinese/Indian proposal and called it a "fair way one can agree on". However, he stressed the need to "fight this global crisis on a global level", which means that every agreement must be based on a combined approach taking not only per capita emissions, but also the aggregate level into consideration.
President Obama announced his willingness to reduce emissions to the the EU level, but also made clear that any agreement has to consist of a population cap as well.
Progress in the Trading Group
An agreeable mood has been reigning in the Trading Group for most of negotiations. Agreements have been reached at a consensus despite the differences between the participating countries. However, that does not take away from the points of contention that keep surfacing. South Africa took upon itself to oppose China on the issue of the number of CDM projects that should be allowed per country. Should there be a set threshold? SA believes there needs to be a set limit per country to avoid specifically China to hog all the lucrative projects. Even though the pressure of coming up with a draft is mounting, issues keep coming up. How much will afforestation cost per year? Should concessions be made to the US in their pursuit of safe nuclear on the condition that the US supports the rest on some other issues? Which body should be assigned with the responsibility of approving nuclear projects for CDM?
The group made a strategic move to allow writing of the first draft to the Chair and the Secretary. Either the participants have no problems to trust their heads or they are planning to pull the document apart for the appropriate wording at a later stage…
Proposition fairness: are we moving towards a breakthrough?
The two degree global target has been agreed to yesterday. However, proposition fairness brings new ideas on which commitments will have to be made for individual countries. Here, the US, the EU and Brazil are discussing a per capita cap on greenhouse gas emissions. Will they come up with targets that are compatible with the Chinese and Indian position?Tuesday, 1 June 2010
Proposition "Fairness"
This morning another unexpected event took place as the coalition of China and India announced their proposition "Fairness". They finally presented concrete numbers about their emission reduction targets. During their presentation the delegate from China stressed that Chinese and Indian have to have the right to emit as many emissions as the US population. For 2050 this would mean a 44% reduction for China and a 194% increase in emissions for India compared to the level in 1990.
China and India also announced that they are ready to go for stronger agreements as long as they were treated equally as the US.
The proposition "Fairness" will for sure have a strong effect on the following negotiations.
Wal-Mart and Pickens announce strategic alliance to increase renewables use in the US until 2030!
Wal-Mart and T. Boone Pickens have announced a strategic alliance to considerably ease US dependence on oil.
Heavy investments in wind energy have been announced to bring its share in national energy consumption to 30% within the next 10 years, while creating about 4.3 million new jobs in that sector.
Moreover, Wal-Mart intends to provide low-cost solar devices to households, intending to increase its share among rural households up to 50%. Wal-Mart is looking into increased cooperation with Chinese suppliers to make these devices affordable for the greater American public.
shocking news about the ongoing oil spill
Not only is BP still incapable to stem the oil flow, the leak has even become bigger. On top of that the oil spill has taken a new catastrophic dimension as the oil slick reached the golf stream and is right now expanding really fast.
One has not expected this to happen so fast, but now especially the European countries France and the UK will be soon facing serious environmental problems.
The ongoing water pollution has, especially in the US, raised voices against the dependence on big global energy companies and strongly increased the interest of the overall population in clean technologies.
Brazil isolated?
Alliances everywhere; countries get together to increase their bargaining positions. Germany seems to be bonding with the US, while the EU pledged to speak with one voice. India and China have a common position.
However, a big question mark hinges over Brazil. What used to be a big global player seems to be a little lost in Berlin. Is Brazil isolated?
Chavez: CDM is an option
"Under strict conditions Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects may be part of the way to save our planet. The people of Venezuela want to contribute to find a solution but claim that afforestation projects should be included."
With this statement Hugo Chavez made an agreement on adaptation strategies possible. Now it's up to the developed countries.
Block formation at UNFCCC!
After the recent announcement by the EU to speak with one voice, China and India have agreed to a common position on all three aspects of the negotiations (mitigation, trading and adaptation).
One Union, One Voice
The countries from the EU: Germany, France, Poland and the United Kingdom, recently decided to speak with one voice during the negotiations.
At the moment the delegates are busy discussing common statements.
This step will have a interesting influence on the conference and will surly strengthen the position of European countries.
Avoiding ambiguous language
Bjarne Inge Johansen of Eurosolar Germany urges parties not to confuse parts per million of C02 and C02 equivalence. The parties should specify their goals either in C02 or C02 equivalent, as to allow for more transparent talks.
Change in Schedule
There will be a change in schedule.
Please adjust your agenda.
13:30 - 14:00 Plenary
14:00 - 16:00 Committees revise proposals as needed
The US in focus:
US President Filip (Barack) Goldman (here with Emilia Czarnowska of South Africa, Francisco Tomaz of the Maldives and Dujuan Guo of Sudan), has expressed great satisfaction with the ongoing talks and is confident that a mutually beneficial agreement is reachable . He emphasizes the need to play with open cards and has stressed positive developments within the working group talks, lauding countries' commitment and flexibility in mitigation, trading and adaptation. Goldman sees particular potential for common ground in the field of adaptation, where he would like to see an international oversight body that involves the UN, the World Bank as well as developing and developed countries.
Is the French government plotting with Greenpeace?
A confidential document has been exchanged between French delegate Natalia Velikodnaya and Greenpeace representative Markus Kuhlmann, suggesting covered cooperation between the two unlikely allies. Stay tuned, we are closely monitoring further developments...
Is the US that important?
Unsurprisingly the US delegates are doing their best to take over the lead in different working groups. They are not only try to go as much speaking time as possible but also go one step further.
It happened that during the negotiations in the working group mitigation the US head delegate needed visiting the rest room and asked the whole group to take a break as well, because obviously in his opinion negotiations need the presence of the US.
Already at the opening statements the US was the first nation who stayed in front of the plenary meeting to show their importance.
Let's see if the strong presence of the US is going to be fruitful.
Joint press release by US retailers and Chinese Export representative!
The US retailer representative Christian Monsson and Chinese export industry representative Patrick Andre Narbel have announced the joint goal of seeking "binding long term commitments until 2050" in order to "create the same conditions for everyone".
The opening statements at a glance:
Brasil: confirms UNFCCC goals and wants to play an active role; mentions hard numbers: 38.9% down by 2020; opposes limited commitments by developing countries
Russia: Climate Change has no negative impact; skeptical stance towards the issue and emphasizes actual expected positive effects of climate change, notably on mitigating the harsh winters; However, signalizes willingness to cooperate and will take a steps ONLY if everybody takes a firm stand to Climate Change legislations, developing and developed nations.
Poland: confirm importance of coal industry for the economy of the country; insist on cooperation with the EU countries on broader goals.
India: levels of consumption of Indians need to rise; West has to curb the energy consumption down to the level of India.
Sudan (speaking on behalf of G77): CC is personal problem for the population (sand storms, agriculture); need finance and technology of developed countries, and cooperation from developing countries.
USA: CC is stability and security issue for all the nations; promise to double the renewable capacity in a few years; energy efficiency partnership with the World Bank (for the developing world); promise to reach their commitments by 2050; confirm responsibility for their country to support developing countries in catching up with the technology, etc.
UK: coordinated action is the goal; acknowledge responsibility for the past action; developing countries should switch to low-carbon economies and the government is willing to help with adaptation; mitigation is very important.
China: stresses historical responsibility of developed countries; different levels of emissions of developing countries have to be considered; no mitigation by using developing countries.
Maldives: struggling hard with climate change effects. Increase of 1.5 degrees maximum! Everybody has to reduce emissions; pledge to be carbon neutral by 2020; adaptation fund and other help is needed from the rest of the world.
Venezuela: COP 15 was a failure; developing countries are victims of the problem and thus developed countries have to take full responsibility and provide funds for mitigation and adaptation. 900 billion dollars per year from IC to DC, asap; opposition to CDM and market mechanism.
France: nothing can be done in isolation; CC is beneficial for everybody when becoming a leader in clean technologies,etc; proposal to address potential benefits of combating CC; nuclear is still a good solution in the mid-term; nuclear should be part of CDM and should be used in other countries; continue investment in the renewables.
South Africa: natural resources are of vital importance; green development is the only option; need for many more funds for mitigation and adaptation and has to come from those historically responsible; this is position of the continent of Africa.
Germany: state desire to take leadership in combating CC; global reduction of GHG emission by 50% by 2050, from 1990 levels; German down 40% by 2020 and 80% by 2050; offer of financial and technology support to DC; for CDM; ask IC to follow in the lead.
Greenpeace France: Make Love not Climate Change!
Undisclosed sources have provided us with the following leaked picture that apparently summarizes Greenpeace France's position in the ongoing negotiations very well. Other civil society organizations seem to support the message, the WWF has already announced full support of Greenpeace's goals.
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