China/India and the EU/US have made substantial progress in aligning their positions, but the devil is in the details.
South Africa and Russia have more fundamental unmet demands, especially with regard to financial and technological transfers.
Russian outright rejection to any commitment has been softened somewhat over the course of negotiations, but their vote will depend on the details that are being negotiated right now. South Africa has voiced concerns about overly ambitious reduction targets and has also stressed the need for African countries in particular to receive sufficient aid in terms of financial and technological transfers to be able to meet whatever targets will be agreed on.
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